Birkenstock Q4 Earnings Predictions: More Growth Expected

Wall Street thinks highly of Birkenstock Holding plc.

HSBC’s global head of luxury and consumer research Erwan Rambourg has a “Buy” rating on shares of Birkenstock. He noted that because the brand in the short term relies more on in-person transactions, investors might deem that as “risky.” And he points out that many brands distributed alongside Birkenstock in the U.S. and Europe in the wholesale channel aren’t seeing much growth, putting the brand in the position of being “a good house in a bad neighborhood.”

But Rambourg debunks that idea, noting that Birkenstock has the “potential to grow nicely in western markets.” Another point for disagreement with investor consensus is that “we believe the brand has barely scratched the surface in APAC (Asia Pacific), where markets are promising and the brand is starting to get prime locations and traction,” the HSBC analyst said. He also said that past investments by the brand in production capacity are being leveraged and Birkenstock can reinvest in brand building.

He’s not the only one who thinks positively of the footwear brand. William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia has an “Outperform” rating on shares of Birkenstock, a comparable level to the “Buy” rating used by other firms.

Birkenstock in September preannounced fiscal 2025 revenues that it expects to total 2.09 billion euros, and it expects fourth quarter revenues to total at least 520 million euros, representing growth of at least 14 percent on a reported basis and 18 percent in constant currency, the company said, noting that its next quarterly earnings report is set for Dec. 18.

Birkenstock also said it acquired a production facility near Dresden, Germany, for 18 million euros. In October, the brand said it inked a definitive agreement to acquire its long-standing distributor Birkenstock Australia Pty Ltd.,

“This acquisition seeks to ensure a seamless succession for the two founders of Birkenstock Australia — Marcel and Manuela Goerke. Birkenstock’s commitment to invest in the Australian market will further unlock the growth potential of one of Birkenstock’s largest markets in the APAC region,” the brand said. The transaction will be through the brand’s 100 percent-owned subsidiary Birkenstock International Asia GmbH.

Zackfia said the preannounced expectations for the brand indicates that healthy brand momentum continued in the fourth quarter. “We project growth will be led by a low-30 percent increase in APAC followed by low-double-digit growth in the Americas and EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa),” she said. “Similar to much of the past 18 months, we expect wholesale to outpace DTC (direct-to-consumer) growth, with wholesale serving as a strong customer acquisition channel.”

The William Blair analyst also noted that Birkenstock’s owned production and engineered distribution model gives the brand the “agility to move between wholesale and DTC as warranted.” And as younger consumers favor in-person shopping at multi-brand stores, Birkenstock has the ability to build long-term affinity with this particular customer group.

She expects Birkenstock’s first take on fiscal 2026 (the full year ends in September) to call for mid- to high-teens constant-currency revenue growth and an 11 percent revenue growth for the first quarter, which seasonally represents the smallest quarter of the year and accounts for 17 percent of sales.

“We remain enthusiastic about the prospects for Birkenstock given the strength of the brand and healthy sales growth,” she said, noting growth over the next few years on ramping production, DTC expansion, white-space categories/geographies, and favorable product mix on premiumization, and an expanded closed-toe assortment.

“Ultimately, we see the opportunity for Birkenstock to generate at least 10 billion in sales with consistent 30 percent-plus adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) margins,” Zackfia said.

BTIG’s Janine Stichter said flexible payment and buy now pay later platform Klarna tapped Birkenstock as its top adult shoe on Black Friday weekend. “This marks a significant year-over-year jump for the brand from last year’s bottom rankings,” the BTIG analyst noted, adding that Timberland, a division of VF Corp., came in second place.

“We believe this suggests a strong start to the holiday period for both Birkenstock and Timberland, further validating both brands’ current strength and momentum,” Stichter said. “Additionally, as installment payments skew younger, this likely reflects Birkenstock’s growing resonance with younger consumers, with management noting in August that demand for the brand’s iconic styles is accelerating within the younger demographic.”

Birkenstock in August continued its U.S. retail expansion with its first Midwestern store in the Chicago suburb of Naperville, Ill. The store, located at 20 W. Jefferson Avenue, offers a look at the brand’s full footwear collection for men, women, and kids. It also houses Birkenstock’s Care Essentials line of premium, all-natural foot care products. Other Birkenstock stores across the U.S. include doors in New York City, Brooklyn, Venice Beach, Miami, Marin County, Austin, Houston, Nashville and Boston.