Shoe Carnival CEO Is Upbeat About Back-to-School: Here’s Why

Shoe Carnival CEO Mark Worden has reasons to be upbeat about the future, which contributed to the retailer’s reaffirmation of fiscal year 2025 guidance after posting first-quarter earnings results on Friday.

He sees the current environment, although volatile, as an “opportunistic one” for the footwear retailer. With a debt-free balance sheet and no manufacturing or wholesale operations, the company can more easily pivot as required by the changing retail landscape. That’s where the rebanner of existing Shoe Carnival stores to the Shoe Station brand comes into play.

“I may be a contrarian on this next statement, but I’m starting to feel cautiously optimistic about back-to-school as we have a compelling assortment in hand and our product costs have not skyrocketed,” Worden told analysts during a company conference call on Friday.

An added benefit has been the close collaboration with vendor partners. “We have not yet experienced, nor do we have visibility to any massive product cost or price increases outside of ranges considered in our guidance,” he said, adding that the situation could evolve and that the singular corporate purpose is to be the leading footwear retailer for families.

He also cited another benefit: “We operate no wholesale businesses, and this has us in a comparatively solid and flexible stance to shift our buying decisions as costs evolve. This does not mean we’re immune to vendor price volatility.”

Since it is not a wholesaler, it also doesn’t have any direct manufacturing exposure, the CEO highlighted, noting that the absence also means it is not locked into any production commitments that could “force uncompetitive decisions.” Moreover, the company’s debt-free balance sheet and expanded cash reserves “has us poised to make opportunistic buys in this volatile time and capture margin growth prospects ahead,” Worden said. “Given all these variables, the executive team does not view it appropriate to withdraw 2025 guidance and today are reaffirming our annual profit guidance as the most likely outcome.”

For the first quarter ended May 3, net income was $9.3 million, or 34 cents a diluted share, on net sales that fell 7.5 percent to $277.7 million. For fiscal year 2025, the company expects earnings per share at between $1.60 to $2.10 on net sales of $1.15 billion to $1.23 billion.

The CEO said that the customer was becoming more cautious during the quarter, particularly at Shoe Carnival, which targets a lower-income household, while tax refund season saw “muted results” that indicated consumer concerns about prices and the speculation of higher prices to come.

“As previously shared, I do not anticipate a Shoe Carnival nor the family footwear industry return to profitable sales growth in the near term based on the current external conditions and soft consumer confidence we are seeing,” he said.

Shoe Carnival sales were down 10 percent in the quarter, while those at Shoe Station rose 4.9 percent. The company sees the opportunity to move Shoe Station from a regional chain to a national footwear chain.

“Shoe Station is our premium retail banner attracting higher income households, providing customers the top brands [and] assortments for both non-athletic and athletic branded footwear,” Worden said, adding that the concept offers high levels of service and a contemporary shopping environment.

A total of 75 Shoe Carnival stores will be rebranded to the Shoe Station banner this year, ending 2025 with 120 locations. More rebranding will continue in 2026 and by March 2027, over 80 percent of the store fleet will operate under the Shoe Station banner.

Worden said Shoe Station has been outpacing the industry and the Shoe Carnival banner quarter-after-quarter for over two years, including producing increased AURs (average unit retail) and accretive product margins “in markets we expected to win in more affluent, suburban, mature customers.”

The CEO said the company is expanding significantly into new markets in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee and Florida. All are locations where data indicates that metrics for the Shoe Station banner will surpass those for Shoe Carnival. According to Worden, it is “crystal clear that Shoe Station is the future of our organic growth and future of our store base.” He also noted that vendors and key stakeholders support the rebanner initiative.

“Will Shoe Station represent 100 percent of the current store fleet in the future? I can share the organization is deeply evaluating that,” Worden said. He explained that the company will test the urban market to see if the “Station banner can better meet all of our store needs,” noting that the company first has to find out how it can satisfy the needs of the “low household income, highly diverse customer base” in cities such as Chicago and Houston.

Looking ahead to the fall, back-to-school and holiday, the CEO said the company made a “deliberate decision” to maintain elevated inventory levels to better navigate what he described as marketplace uncertainties.

“With our cash-rich position we determined the best approach to serve customers during back-to-school and holiday seasons was to invest early in key products, maximize our in-stock position and ensure our stores are fully prepared,” Worden said. “I want to assure you our customers will find their favorite brands fully stocked across Shoe Station, Shoe Carnival and Rogan’s locations throughout 2025.”

He added that men’s and women’s performance running brands continue to deliver “exceptional results” and were particularly strong with double-digit growth at Shoe Station, where styles for back-to-school have “robust” AURs over $130 on average.

And separately, the CEO said the company remains committed to pursuing M&A—when the right opportunity at a fair valuation becomes available—to achieve its long-term vision to be the nation’s leading footwear retailer for families. “Our M&A targeting focus is on market leading footwear retailers with scale, providing geographic expansion and/or diversifying to a higher income customer base. The leadership team will pursue scale changing M&A,” he told analysts on the call.